Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
